Preview: New Zealand v Australia
Ones to watch: James Horwill and Ma'a Nonu
They say occasionally that life imitates art. Last weekend in New Zealand, it imitated rugby. Almost simultaneously, the All Blacks crashed to an ignominious defeat in Sydney, and a weather system moved over Auckland, decribed as 'the deepest low seen in some years'. In the offices of the NZRU, the low shows no sign of moving on.
The All Blacks have returned to Auckland looking very bedraggled. Australia delivered a storming performance themselves last week to blow the All Blacks to bits, and New Zealand's rescue team needs longer to clear up the wreckage than it has had.
New Zealand's player exodus to the north was made light of at the start of the international season, but the drain on resources is biting hard now. Several of last weekend's players could have been 'rotated' prior to the Rugby World Cup on the back of last week's display.
Now they can't. Of the backs waiting in the wings - literally now in Richard Kahui's case - nothing much has been forthcoming. Of the forwards, Adam Thomson is doing well, but the other new faces are not bedding in comfortably.
That's half of the problem, and it is the most immediately obvious, but the deeper problem is soon to become apparent.
It seems there is also an element of 'brain drain' on the Islands as well. The clamour for Graham Henry's head has become full-scale mobbing in the past few days. But everybody is busy lamenting the loss of Robbie Deans - some even pointing out that another alternative, Warren Gatland, has also headed overseas. There remains no clamour as to what to do next if Henry does go.
Henry and his assistants will probably have their tenure ended at the culmination of this Tri-Nations - that probability will become a certainty if New Zealand lose their proud Eden Park record on Saturday - but now that the prized coaching assets have shoved off, who might step in?
It is highly unlikely that Steve Hansen or Wayne Smith will be promoted at Henry's expense, as they have largely alienated themselves from their own fans by dint of solidarity with the current regime. None of the current Super 14 crop are exactly begging for international recognition; Colin Cooper of the Hurricanes is probably the most likely candidate, with Highlanders coach Glenn Moore the darkest of dark horses.
Neither has covered himself with glory: Cooper's Hurricanes are celebrated nearly-men of the Super 14, Moore's Highlanders have had a poor season, but have done comparatively well considering the meagre resources. Given the lack of top-notch international players available in New Zealand, perhaps Moore would be the better candidate of those two!
Outside the NZRU, John Kirwan is making a name for himself, first with Italy and now with Japan, but he has little experience of the ELVs. And of course, there are Gatland and Deans. None of the three are showing any sign of wanting to return though, and who'd want to when all the players are voting with their feet?
The villains of the piece are those in the corridors of power at the NZRU. Changing Henry after the World Cup would have been a natural succession. A new coach, new ideas, something interesting for the players to stay for. Instead, opting for 'same old, same old' at home has seen staff and players seeking a fresh challenge elsewhere. There needs to be a wind of change at the top of New Zealand rugby to blow this bad weather away.
In the aftermath of last week's storm, the rain has kept falling, falling, falling in New Zealand's north island, and will not be abating for Saturday's match. The sides will undoubtedly keep the ball as tight as possible, rendering the breakdown of even more importance than last week.
That makes Richie McCaw's return all the more significant, but even he alone would not be able to carry the team display the All Blacks put on in Sydney.
The gaping holes left to be filled are as follows: there is no runner taking the ball on like Jerry Collins. There is no kicking option at inside centre, heaping pressure on Dan Carter and stifling his natural game. The trickle-down effect from both of these is that the team is trying to force things too much, resulting in the flawed tactics of running from deep and not kicking intelligently for territory last week. The coaches admitted their mistakes, but maybe the tactics chosen were just an attempt to play to strengths. Maybe those strengths alone just aren't as good anymore.
Alternatively, observers could stop looking for New Zealand's faults and praise Australia instead. Tight defence, clinical execution, cool thinking under pressure and especially intelligent positional play are fast becoming hallmarks of the Australian game. The bouquets tossed at Australia's loose trio for their turnover work last week were well-deserved, but careful examination shows that they simply had more bodies in the right positions. It wasn't just the earnest endeavour of Smith and co. that got the ball, it was the awareness of each other's position and of the likelihood of what would happen next that put them in the position to get it. That is Robbie Deans' work.
It's been 22 years since New Zealand last lost to Australia at Eden Park, 14 years since they last lost there at all, 10 years since they last lost three on the bounce, and six years since they last let the Bledisloe Cup slip from their grasp.
On a night when rain will fall and ball will slip out of grasp, Australia may well end all (in the case of the Bledisloe Cup, all but end) those records. The depression over New Zealand deepens.
Ones to watch:
For New Zealand: Ma'a Nonu is New Zealand's chosen number twelve for now, but how long can New Zealand continue to indulge the fact that a number twelve needs to have a tactical boot? Dan Carter continues to perform miracles under pressure, but imagine what he could do if he had someone tactical on his shoulder. Nonu needs to step up, as well as trying to step his opposite number.
For Australia: James Horwill is revelling in his fledgeling Wallaby career. He outshone both Brad Thorn and Ali Williams last week, finishing off his first Bledisloe Cup match with a try. There is lots to watch about Australia at the moment, but if you had to single something out, Horwill would be it.
Head to head: Richie McCaw v George Smith is a battle of dirty old dogs in a mudbath at the bottom of the rucks. The Wallabies won eleven turnovers to New Zealand's five last week, but McCaw is usually worth an extra two or three to his team. Now we'll see whether the Wallabies' weight of numbers will nullify that threat.
Recent results:
2008 Australia won 34-19 in Sydney
2007 New Zealand won 26-12 in Auckland
2007 Australia won 20-15 in Melbourne
2006 New Zealand won 34-27 in Auckland
2006 New Zealand won 13-9 in Brisbane
2006 New Zealand won 32-12 in Christchurch
2005 New Zealand won 34-24 in Auckland
2005 New Zealand won 30-13 in Sydney
2004 Australia won 23-18 in Sydney
2004 New Zealand won 16-7 in Wellington
2003 Australia won 22-10 in Sydney (RWC)
2003 New Zealand won 21-17 in Auckland
Prediction: The end of an era in Auckland, and the end of New Zealand's challenge in the Tri-Nations this year. Australia by six points.
New Zealand: 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Richard Kahui, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Rodney So'oialo, 7 Richie McCaw (captain), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Greg Somerville, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 John Afoa, 18 Anthony Boric, 19 Adam Thomson, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Stephen Donald, 22 Richard Kahui.
Australia: 15 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 14 Peter Hynes, 13 Stirling Mortlock (c), 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Lote Tuqiri, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Luke Burgess, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 George Smith, 6 Phil Waugh, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 James Horwill, 3 Al Baxter, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 17 Matt Dunning, 18 Dan Vickerman, 19 Hugh McMeniman, 20 Sam Cordingley, 21 Ryan Cross, 22 Drew Mitchell.
Date: Saturday, August 2
Venue: Eden Park, Auckland
Kick-off: 19.35 (07.35 GMT)
Weather: Heavy rain, strong northerly wind, 13°C.
Referee: Mark Lawrence (South Africa)
Touch judges: Craig Joubert (South Africa), James Bolabiu (Fiji)
TMO: Shaun Veldsman (South Africa)
By Danny Stephens