Preview: Super 14 semi-finals
Silverware up for grabs: The Super 14 trophy
After several weeks of suspense and anxiety, the 2008 Super 14 semi-finals have finally arrived with two enthralling contests in store on what will be a very special Super Saturday.
The first semi-final features six-time Super Rugby champions the Crusaders up against the Hurricanes in Christchurch and the second semi sees the Waratahs host the Sharks in Sydney.
The final three qualifiers were confirmed last weekend with the Waratahs and Sharks getting vital wins over the Reds and Chiefs respectively and the Hurricanes sneaking home after losing to the Blues but benefiting from the fact that the Stormers could not secure a bonus point against the bottom-of-the-table Lions.
The Crusaders, who confirmed their semi-final place well in advance, are no strangers to the knock-out stages of the competition. Since the inception of the Super Rugby concept they have featured in the semi-finals on no less than nine occasions, losing only once - to the Bulls in 2007 - a win percentage of almost 90 per cent!
The Hurricanes have played in three previous Super Rugby semi-finals, losing twice to the Crusaders in 2003 and 2005 and winning against the Waratahs in 2006. Their success ratio is just under 35 per cent.
Whilst the Sharks have a more impressive semi-finals pedigree, the Waratahs have dominated Super Rugby meetings between them, winning seven of the last 10. The Sharks have also lost on five of their last six visits to Sydney, the only victory coming in 2000 when they won 26-19.
The Sharks have made five previous semi-final appearances - 1996, 1997 and 1998 as well as 2001 and 2007, winning three times for a success ratio of 60 per cent.
The Waratahs meanwhile, have made the play-offs just three times - 2002, 2005 and 2006 - with their 23-13 victory over the Bulls their only success. However, their title aspirations were halted by the Crusaders a week later, who beat the Sydneysiders 35-25 in an enthralling final.
Crusaders v Hurricanes
AMI Stadium, Christchurch, 19:35 (08:35 GMT)
Don't be surprised if a sense of déjà vu grips you during Saturday's first Super 14 line-up between the Crusaders and Hurricanes in Christchurch.
The match is the most regular fixture in Super Rugby history, will be controlled by the competition's busiest referee and is at a ground that has seen more play-off encounters than any other.
It will be the 17th match between the two New Zealand powerhouse franchises, surpassing any other combination of teams.
Sitting on 16 are matches between the Crusaders and Highlanders, Crusaders and Brumbies, and Blues and Sharks.
It will be a record fourth play-off match between the Crusaders and Hurricanes and their tenth meeting in Christchurch, also a new mark for one venue.
Australian referee Stu Dickinson will hold the whistle for a record 68th Super Rugby match. He is eleven games clear of South African Jonathan Kaplan.
Thanks to the Crusaders' continued success, Christchurch has already hosted ten semi-finals or finals, clear of the eight in Auckland and six in Canberra.
The Christchurch and Wellington-based teams have a history as lop-sided as it is long, with the Crusaders having won 12 of their 16 matches and drawn another.
At home, it is even more dominant: seven wins, one loss, one draw record for the Crusaders, with the Hurricanes' sole success coming seven years ago.
Since then the Crusaders' average winning margin has been 18 points, although that average has come down in recent seasons against a more robust Hurricanes outfit.
Two years ago the Crusaders and Hurricanes squared off in the Big Fog Final before the red mist descended over Tana Umaga, Chris Masoe and a handbag at the Jolly Poacher in Christchurch.
Any forecast about the outcome of Saturday's play-off is equally dodgy because both sides come to the opening Super 14 semi-final after weekend defeats.
The Hurricanes were edged out in a tense away battle against the Blues, while the Crusaders were beaten emphatically on their home ground by the lowly Highlanders - only their second home defeat in 33 matches at the AMI Stadium.
That result did not affect the Crusaders' lead after round-round play but it emphasised their faltering presence this month. They made hard work of beating the Sharks and the Reds before stumbling badly against the Highlanders.
Having already qualified for the home semi, they performed as if they did not want to damage their bodies before the big night on stage.
They were outplayed at the breakdowns, lacked cohesion in defence and struggled to make the sort of line breaks that often have opponents chasing red and black jerseys with hysterical looks on their faces.
Kick-off recipients also proved a problem, the outside backs were vulnerable when singled out by the Highlanders' kicking game and the scrum was put under plenty of heat.
All Blacks Dan Carter and Richie McCaw failed to shine, the former unable to generate the trademark breaks that can split defences and a wonky cross-kick gifted Paul Williams a try, while the latter topped off a forgettable night when he was yellow-carded after referee Keith Brown alleged he played the ball on the ground.
The tenacity and street cunning that was prevalent in their narrow wins this year was missing and they almost surrendered without launching a few shells in return.
Defence, discipline and set-piece composure which have underpinned their campaigns under coach Robbie Deans, have eroded in recent games and deteriorated last week.
There were those in Christchurch who believed the prolonged civic farewells for Deans were a distraction and a pointer to the Crusaders' fate this Saturday.
But it is highly unlikely Deans will be hunting for a rugby witch doctor to get their heads right before this weekend's clash, instead he must now trust the coaching instincts that have seen him snare a record four Super Rugby titles.
However, it should not be Deans' task to cocoon his squad away from the distractions - his moving to Australia, the swansong season for veterans Reuben Thorne, Caleb Ralph and possibly Greg Somerville, Mose Tuiali'i and Dan Carter - that threaten to destroy his fairytale finish to his Crusaders career.
The coach can only convey the messages. It is up to his players to deliver against the Hurricanes.
The Hurricanes would have been left mentally frayed as they had to wait 24 hours last weekend to discover whether they had been overhauled by their South African pursuers for a place in the last four.
They were saved by their better points differential and the Stormers' inability to score one more try.
Coach Colin Cooper, who helped coach the Crusaders in their unbeaten title run in 2002, would have picked up some tips from the Highlanders and turn his attention to the Hurricanes' set piece to deliver an historic play-off win.
The difference between the two Hurricane sides of 2006 and 2008 is their forwards, who have become stronger than ever. Everything starts at the set piece and the Hurricanes' has been getting better and better.
If the men in yellow and black can get accurate, go-forward ball, then their backs will be pose a huge threat. At the end of the final whistle, the most accurate team will win.
But like we've said before, results don't favour the team from the capital.
The Hurricanes have beaten the Crusaders only once in Christchurch - under coach Graham Mourie in 2001 - with seven defeats and a draw showing how hard they have found life at what is now AMI Stadium.
Three times Cooper has taken the Hurricanes south during the Super Rugby semi-finals and final and three times they have returned to Wellington defeated.
Captain Rodney So'oialo - should he recover from his bruised ribs suffered against the Blues - is in a unique position within the Hurricanes this week. He is the only player to have beaten the Crusaders in Christchurch playing as a flanker in the 41-29 win in 2001. Jerry Collins was in the squad, but didn't play, while hooker Andrew Hore came off the bench for the Crusaders.
The square-off between the best two New Zealand sides offers another player comparison for the All Black coaches as they look ahead to naming their squad for the opening June 7 Test against Ireland in Wellington.
Super head to head: Crusaders fans will be looking to captain and flanker Richie McCaw to show that all is not lost for the side while fly-half Dan Carter naturally becomes a point of interest in pressure games. Carter will be a substantial hurdle for Hurricanes' new-found pivot Willie Ripia, while McCaw's opposite number Jerry Collins - who is still yet to set this year's competition alight - will be out to get one over his All Black colleague.
Prediction: The Crusaders hold the key to this game. If they play as they have for the last two weeks they will pay dearly. But if they recapture the poise that has made them such a formidable Super Rugby opponent they will be in next week's final. The Hurricanes have shown in recent weeks a certain unflappable quality that previous teams have not demonstrated. Whether that can sustain them and push the team to victory is another matter. Given the Crusaders' decline in recent weeks there may be no better opportunity for the Hurricanes. The Hurricanes to win by three points.
Previous results:
2008: Crusaders won 20-13, Wellington
2007: Crusaders won 23-13, Christchurch
2006 Final: Crusaders won 19-12, Christchurch
2006: Crusaders won 20-11, Wellington
2005 Semi: Crusaders won 47-7, Christchurch
2005: Crusaders won 40-20, Christchurch
2004: Hurricanes won 37-20, Wellington
2003 Semi: Crusaders won 39-16, Christchurch
2003: Crusaders won 37-21, Christchurch
2002: Crusaders won 48-20, Wellington
The teams:
Crusaders: 15 Leon MacDonald, 14 Kade Poki, 13 Casey Laulala, 12 Tim Bateman, 11 Scott Hamilton, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Andrew Ellis, 8 Mose Tuiali'i, 7 Richard McCaw (c), 6 Kieran Read, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Greg Somerville, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Wyatt Crockett.
Replacement: 16 Ti'i Paulo, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Reuben Thorne, 19 Nasi Manu, 20 Kahn Fotuali'i, 21 Stephen Brett, 22 Sean Maitland.
Hurricanes: 15 Cory Jane, 14 Hosea Gear, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Willie Ripia, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Rodney So'oialo/Chris Masoe, 7 Masoe/Scott Waldrom, 6 Jerry Collins, 5 Jason Eaton, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Tim Fairbrother, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 John Schwalger.
Replacements: 16 Hikawera Elliot, 17 Neemia Tialata, 18 Craig Clarke, 19 Scott Waldrom/Thomas Waldrom, 20 Alby Mathewson, 21 Jimmy Gopperth, 22 Tamati Ellison.
Referee: Stuart Dickinson (Australia)
Touch Judges: Matt Goddard, Paul Marks (Australia)
TMO: Geoff Acton (Australia)
Waratahs v Sharks
Sydney Football Stadium, Sydney, 20:00 (10:00 GMT)
No matter what happens from now on, the 2008 season can only be rated an overwhelming success for the Waratahs as they prepare to take on the Sharks in semi-final number two on Saturday.
And all the plaudits must go to the players and team management - for overcoming the barriers placed in front of them, the ridiculous off-field antics that could have easily derailed their campaign and a lack of thought from head office which would have ruined lesser outfits.
The schism between the team and those who run the franchise was exposed earlier this season, when the NSWRU heavies decided to shackle the team by creating a media frenzy when opting not to extend Ewen McKenzie's coaching contract.
Getting rid of a coach is an organisation's perogative. But a good organisation has a replacement waiting to step in. A bad one doesn't have anyone in the wings, and instead lets the situation turn into a destructive mini-cyclone involving endless speculation and uncertainty.
Thankfully the players have retained their focus, with the senior figures leading the way. Phil Waugh has been the ideal captain this year and the standout Australian openside flanker in the tournament.
Whenever the Waratahs have lost, his despair is genuine. When they win, he has asked for more the following weekend.
Considering the landmines planted in the field of conflict by supposed allies, the Waratahs' rise from 13th last season to second this year is an exceptional achievement.
Another major accomplishment is the fact that the Waratahs have the second best defensive record this season, having conceded 186 points.
The first-placed Crusaders conceded 176, the fourth-placed Hurricanes 204 and the third-placed Sharks 209. The top four teams were the best four teams when it came to not conceding points.
But the Waratahs scored just 255 points over the season. Only one team scored fewer - the bottom placed Lions, with 206. The Cheetahs, the second-last placed side, also scored 255. By way of comparison, the Crusaders chalked up 369 points, the highest in the league.
The Hurricanes scored 310 and the Sharks, despite their 47 points against the Chiefs last week, just 271. The best statistic for the Waratahs in all of this, however, is that in matches that really counted, they scored well, defeating the Hurricanes 20-3, the Blues 37-16 and the Sharks 25-10.
The key for the Waratahs is to hope the Hurricanes beat the Crusaders in Christchurch then defeat the Sharks at the SFS on Saturday. If these results come to pass, the Waratahs get a home final, to be played at ANZ Stadium, which diminishes slightly the home ground advantage they have capitalised on this season.
The Sharks took off on a long flight to Sydney last weekend with their confidence soaring after the stunning manner in which they qualified for the semi-finals. They scored seven sensational tries against the Chiefs to shut out South African rivals, the Stormers, who were competing with the Sharks for a semi-final position.
It was the performance the coaching staff had longed for since their ordinary start to the campaign, where they failed to collect a single four-try bonus point in five home matches. There were constant threats that their team would click and when they did they were untouchable.
They've committed to being patient in their phase play, and that approach paid dividends against the Chiefs last week. Their ball carriers were seldom isolated and as a result the Chiefs' attempts to steal possession proved futile. They'll need to replicate their efficiency in that facet of play in Sydney.
However the Waratahs pack have made dramatic improvement to their set phase and general play this season, to the point where they have troubled some of the tournament's finest heavies.
Dan Vickerman prides himself in being the leader of the forwards, and it shows. He is the heart of the Waratahs machine, while Wycliff Palu, Rocky Elsom, Phil Waugh, Dean Mumm, Al Baxter, Benn Robinson, Adam Freier and Matt Dunning work away effectively as its pistons.
Coaches and forwards routinely tell you that rugby matches are won and lost up front. Backs will disagree, but in this particular semi-final, even they will concede.
The match will be won by the team whose defenders are willing to put in the ground-gaining tackles on 100kg-plus men, the team whose primary ball carriers bust the gain line regularly and the team who have the ascendancy at the set phases.
The backs will take the stage in the final quarter. But the match situation at that point will depend almost entirely on the effectiveness of the beef eaters.
A worry for the Sharks' fans is that South African sides have generally not travelled well in the past, particularly when they've played in play-off matches.
The Sharks were the last South African side to win an away semi-final. That victory came in the tournament's first year, 1996, a 43-25 blitz of the Reds in Brisbane.
But they've lost every away play-off match since - to the Blues in Auckland in 1997, to the Crusaders in Christchurch in 1998, and then again in the 2001 final to the Brumbies in Canberra
The Sharks victory over the Chiefs last week, however, will install a belief that they can match and surpass anything the Waratahs are capable of. The Sydney franchise schooled the Sharks in all facets of play when they met in Round Eleven with a 25-10 win the outcome after an extremely one-sided second half.
The tourists would have learned a great deal from that loss, but it's the psychological impact of playing away in a semi-final that the Sharks will have to manage and overcome to avoid a complete meltdown.
It might also be worth remembering that the Sharks won just one of their five tour matches this year.
The winner will be 80 minutes away from their first Super 14 title, whilst the loser will reflect on what could have been.
Super head to head: Nullifying the Waratahs' loose trio will be vital if the Sharks hope to progress to the Super 14 final and lucky for them they have Springbok number eight Ryan Kankowski on their side, who is arguably the form player of the entire competition. The talented 22-year-old delivered a complete performance against the Chiefs combining his rare speed and ample power to dominate the contest. His battle with Waratahs' powerhouse Wycliff Palu who also happens to be in career-best form, is not to be missed. It is essential that the Sharks stand firm in the collisions with the 120kg bruiser. They failed to do so in the their previous fixture and paid a heavy price. If Palu was the hitman against the Sharks in Round Eleven, Phil Waugh engineered the murder with his relentless and highly effective breakdown contest. He turned over seven times in the second half alone, and slowed sufficient ball to ensure that the Sharks were never in the contest. An encore performance from the master pilferer and the Sharks will see an already difficult task become a near impossible one.
Prediction: The Waratahs will take confidence out of their 25-10 defeat of the Sharks at the same venue less than a month ago but have a serious battle on their hands this time around. While the Sharks showed what they can do in attack against the Chiefs last week, the Waratahs' defence is a vastly different proposition and should find a way to shut-out the men from Durban. Waratahs by six points.
Previous results:
2008: Waratahs won 25-10, Sydney
2007: Sharks won 22-9, Durban
2006: Waratahs won 31-16, Sydney
2005: Waratahs won 36-13, Durban
2004: Waratahs won 48-14, Sydney
2003: Waratahs won 49-36, Durban
2002: Waratahs won 42-8, Sydney
2001: Sharks won 42-17, Durban
2000: Sharks won 26-19, Sydney
1999: Draw, 13-all, Durban
The teams:
Waratahs: 15 Sam Norton-Knight, 14 Lachie Turner, 13 Rob Horne, 12 Tom Carter, 11 Lote Tuqiri, 10 Kurtley Beale, 9 Luke Burgess, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Phil Waugh (c), 6 Rocky Elsom, 5 Dan Vickerman, 4 Dean Mumm, 3 Al Baxter, 2 Adam Freier,
1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Al Manning, 17 Matt Dunning, 18 Will Caldwell, 19 Beau Robinson, 20 Brett Sheehan, 21 Matt Carraro, 22 Timana Tahu.
Sharks: 15 Stefan Terblanche, 14 Odwa Ndungane, 13 Adrian Jacobs, 12 Francois Steyn, 11 JP Pietersen, 10 Ruan Pienaar, 9 Rory Kockott, 8 Ryan Kankowski, 7 AJ Venter, 6 Jacques Botes, 5 Johann Muller (c), 4 Steven Sykes, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Craig Burden, 17 Deon Carstens, 18 Albert van den Berg, 19 Jean Deysel, 20 Epi Taione, 21 Bradley Barritt, 22 Waylon Murray.
Referee: Bryce Lawrence (New Zealand)
Touch judges: Lyndon Bray (New Zealand), Kelvin Deaker (New Zealand)
Television match official: Glenn Newman (New Zealand)